A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
